DOI:

Inventory reference

ISSN 1812-7231 Klin.inform.telemed. Volume 9, Issue 10, 2013, Pages 117-122

Author(s)

S. Solovyov

Institution(s)

P. L. Shupyk National medical academy of post-graduate education Department of virology, Ukraine, Kyiv

Article title

Development and analysis of dynamic model of morbidity of rotavirus infection and evaluation of possible consequences of its specific prevention in Ukraine

Abstract (resume)

Using data of clinical and laboratory observations of the features of epidemic process of rotavirus infection (RVI) among children under 5 years in Ukraine it has been developed the model, based on the system of differential equations, describing the dynamics of morbidity and takes into account the previous cases. The model reproduces the seasonal characteristics of the disease and the age distributionof cases of RVI among children under 5 years in Ukraine. The modeling found that in the structure of morbidity is dominated by the number of first cases of disease in the age group "1 to 2 years". Projected maximum decrease of the morbidity of RVI is about 48.4% after 7–8 years from the start of vaccination. The results showed that immunoprophylaxis is effective in reducing the morbidity of RVI in Ukraine, and active implementation of immunization is a strategic decision in the struggle with RVI in Ukraine.

Keywords

rotavirus infection, disease, dynamics, differential equations

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