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Inventory reference ISSN 1812-7231 Klin.inform.telemed. Volume 10, Issue 11, 2014, Pages 81–88

Author(s) O. P. Kolesnik1, A. I. Shevchenko1, Y. Е. Lyakh2, V. G. Gurianov2

Institution(s) 1Zaporozhye state medical university, Ukraine 2The Maxim Gorky Donetsk National medical university, Ukraine

Article title The total scale for prognosis of survival patients with early stages of non-small cell lung cancer

Abstract (resume)

Purpose. The aim of our study was to create a predictive model to identify patients with early-stage NSCLC with poor prognosis.

Materials and methods. The study was conducted in 254 patients with early-stage NSCLC, who were treated between June 2008 and December 2012 at the Department of Thoracic Surgery Zaporozhye Regional Clinical Oncology Center. Based on a complex turn-based statistical methods we established the total point scale prediction of adverse disease course in patients with early-stage NSCLC. The first step in building scale — a list of the variables that are potential predictors we have selected 39 variables.

Result and discussion. Predictors that had a statistical relationship with the dependent variable with the level of significance (p = 0,1) and fewer were still included in the regression model . As regression model was selected for optimum scaling Regression (Regression with Optimal scaling (CATREG)) (implemented in SPSS 17.0). Thus, taking into account the categorization to the regression model included 12 of the 39 potential predictors: size of tumor (cm), criterion "N", stage of disease, histological form of the tumor, surgery volume, volume of lymphdissection, intrapericardial ligation of vessels, complaint to hemoptysis, Ki-67 expression, expression of Her-2-neu, expression of EGFR, pancytokeratine expression.

The last step of the scale is the practical test adequacy threshold point. It was accounted the actual rate of death from progression of NSCLC patients with a total score of 28 or less. It amounted to 8,8±2,7% (about 10%). The actual rate of progress NMKRL deaths in patients with a total score of over 28 was 48,9±4,2% (about 50%). Model specificity was 58,9%, sensitivity — 87,3%.

Conclusion. The result of our study was to create a scale that is based on estimates of 12 signs of the patient can speak objectively about the risk of death by probability. Patients with prognostic score of more than 28 dynamic requires careful monitoring to detect early recurrence and further treatment.

Keywords Prognostic model; Survival; Non small cell lung cancer


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